Meteorologist: La Niña Plans To Stay for Christmas, Keeping Texas’
Warm, Dry Conditions in Place for Much of Fall, Winter
by
JOHN DAVIS
Following this year’s record-setting hot summer, nearly everyone has wondered what the weather has in store for the Lone Star State as winter approaches.
The Farmers’ Almanac found the subject so topical that they released their 2022-23 winter outlook early this year, reporting that Texans can expect chilly weather with normal precipitation. North Texas may see, according to the 204-year-old periodical, snow and ice storms throughout winter.
However, the Climate Prediction Center is confident the La Niña will continue through the end of 2022, said Bob Rose, chief meteorologist with Lower Colorado River Authority, an Austin-based, nonprofit public utility that provides power and manages the lower Colorado River.
“The latest observations show La Niña is firmly in place, and every bit as strong and well-developed as it was last winter and spring,” Rose said. “The La Niña is not showing any signs of weakening anytime soon. The majority of dynamical and statistical forecast solutions (which take into account the oceans and the atmosphere) indicate the La Niña will peak in intensity sometime in December or early January, then begin weakening late January through March.”
La Niña typically brings warmer, dryer weather to Texas, and it accounts for this summer’s lack of rain and triple-digit temperatures, leading to this summer’s repeated record-setting electricity usage. Texans set a new all-time usage record on July 20 this year, demanding 80,028 MW from the grid to stay cool, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).
This year will mark a “triple-dip” La Niña, which means the weather pattern will have returned for an exceptional third year in a row. Recorded “triple dips” have occurred between 1973 and 1976, and again between 1998 and 2001. With only two other instances of a triple-dip during a 70-year period, Rose said it’s hard to conclude what may happen during this year’s winter by comparing it to the third year of the two previous triple-dip La Niña.
“In the fall and winter of 1975-1976, rainfall was below normal and temperatures were near-normal to slightly below normal,” he said. “In the fall and winter of 2000-2001, rainfall was actually above normal and temperatures were below normal. Based on these inconsistencies and small sample size, I don’t feel we can draw any real conclusions from the past two events.”
Rose said the latest forecast guidance shows rainfall will be stay below normal through the rest of fall and through the winter months. The same forecast suggests temperatures will average milder than normal for both periods as well.
“I think we can compare the rain outlook for the upcoming fall and winter with what occurred last fall and winter when La Niña was in place,” he said. “Following the wet summer of 2021, drier than-normal conditions developed last fall and they persisted through the winter. On the temperature side, I’m a little more cautious in drawing any comparisons with last winter. December 2021 was the warmest December ever recorded, but January and February turned out cooler than normal. The latest forecast calls for milder-than normal temperatures through the entire winter, with a slight trend cooler temperatures in February.”
That predicted February cooling trend is related to a weakening La Niña, Rose said. It doesn’t serve as a harbinger for what happened in February 2021. Winter Storm Uri was caused by a breakdown of the polar vortex and the blast of arctic air that reached through the center of the country down to Texas.
It’s still too early to predict how this year’s polar vortex may behave, he said.
“From an odds perspective, that was a roughly 1 in 30 to a 1 in 50 cold event, so the odds of it happening in any given winter are quite low,” he said.
As of press time, ERCOT has reported that the reserve margin for winter looks adequate, said Blake Beavers, United’s vice president of member services and power supply.
Reserve margin is the amount of energy generation above and beyond what consumers will demand. ERCOT’s Capacity Demand Reserve report, published in May 2021, states that winter 2022-2023 peak demand forecast is 64,472 MW, and firm peak demand forecast is 61,821 MW. It also shows a potential reserve margin of 42 percent.
“Shortly following the aftermath of Winter Storm Uri, the legislature turned to the PUCT and provided a list of concerns about the electric landscape, and they requested for the commission to fix the issues,” Beavers said. “One of these items on the list is to fine any generators that are not winterized to the standards they developed. After Uri, many generators began investing in onsite storage for fuel sources that would allow generation to continue if fuel sources become scarce. If all of the generators in ERCOT network are in compliance, and with so many generators investing in onsite fuel storage, this provides another level of risk mitigation that will serve the Texas consumers well if another major record breaking cold front moves through Texas.”
While energy might be available, it still won’t come as cheaply for Texas consumers as it once did, Beavers said. Two major economic forces are causing higher energy prices, with the price of natural gas being the most apparent.
“New protocols developed and implemented by the PUC trying to incentivize generation to be built in Texas has caused pricing to stay higher than in the past,” he said. “Second, natural gas prices have been volatile and have hit $10 per MMBTU at one point this summer. To put this in context, the price was $3-4 per MMBTU last year. Natural gas prices have started to drop a bit, but this is typical for this time of year due to lower demand. Early cold temperatures could cause demand to go up, causing pricing to increase.
Exports of liquified natural gas to Europe and Asia also could cause demand to increase. There is a possibility that natural gas prices could level off, which would stabilize prices.”